How we can respond to Trump

Some ruminations from the Climate Rambler on where we are and what we can do

Image credit: Joel Pett

We hoped that we could confine Trump to the dustbin of history but here we are. Giving up is a luxury we don’t have, so here are some reflections for a shared conversation among climate activists on where we are and what we can do.

The impacts of Trump II on the climate and our movement will be very bad. Trump and his acolytes will steer more direct and indirect subsidies to the fossil fuel industry and pull the US out of the Paris Agreement again. They will try to dismantle the regulatory state, crack down on dissent and embolden the prosecution of environmental defenders around the world. Their plans will be tempered by their incompetence but even so, Carbon Brief has estimated that a Trump administration will emit an additional 4 billion tons of CO2 – one year’s worth of emissions from the EU and Japan – by 2030.

Trump is however fighting a rearguard battle. According to the International Energy Agency, clean power investments are expected to be ten times as high as unabated fossil fuel investments in 2024. This trend is driven not by the United States but by China. Trump can try to shield the US from the clean energy revolution but will do so at a high cost to US society. Numerous business sectors and states – including red states like Texas – have an interest in expanding solar and wind power regardless of the climate denialism from the White House.

The climate crisis not only creates enormous human suffering; it also threatens the stability of the financial system. Trump can deny but cannot avoid this. Florida’s governor Ron de Santis has banned the term climate change from state laws and his insurance commissioner is fighting climate action by insurers, but climate change is now making growing parts of Florida uninsurable. Regulators which are not in the pocket of the fossil fuel industry will realize that they have an interest in accelerating the transition to clean energy sources.

We have learnt that finance can be an effective lever for climate action when governments refuse to act. Many financial institutions will undoubtedly support Trump in an effort to benefit from deregulation. Others – in particular insurance companies, pension funds and central banks – should understand that they have an eminent self-interest in a transition away from fossil fuels. Responding to Trump’s first term, our networks have built up considerable movement power to accelerate this process since 2017.

The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is a political project and needs to be just. It needs to involve communities which depend on extractive industries in the process, respect the rights of the people – and in particular Indigenous Peoples – affected by clean energy projects, force fossil fuel companies to address the harm they have created, and offer well-paid jobs in the clean energy sector. The thousands of small businesses which are part of the clean energy revolution need to get their act together and find a political voice which can hold the fossil fuel lobby in check.

So where does this leave us as climate activists? Here are some non-conclusive pointers.

. We can mobilize street pressure, consumers, employees, prospective employees and shareholders to push insurers, pension funds and other financial institutions to take climate action when governments refuse to do their job.

. We can push regulators to require financial institutions to implement credible, science-based transition plans, increase capital requirements for fossil fuel investments, and establish dual interest rates favoring clean energy over fossil fuel projects.

. We can rebuild and strengthen alliances with movements in other sectors fighting the policies of Trump and autocrats throughout the world.

. We can support the brilliant environmental law groups which are gearing up to take fossil fuel companies, a second Trump administration and other governments to court to stop their deregulation agenda and enforce bold climate action.

. Groups in the global South can push their governments to request Chinese support for renewable energy projects rather than gas power plants, as activists in Bangladesh, Pakistan and other countries have done very effectively.

. Groups which are involved in climate diplomacy can push for coalitions between Europe, China, other governments interested in the transition and the blue states in the US, isolating the climate deniers in the White Houser and their allies.

All of us can find opportunities to engage in or support such efforts. But first we need to pause, take time to absorb the election shock, reflect and discuss. It is going to be a long slough.

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